Does HTML 5 Herald The End Of RIA Plug-Ins? Not Really

Does HTML 5 Herald The End Of RIA Plug-Ins? Not ReallyWill HTML 5 make rich Internet application (RIA) technologies such as Adobe Flash/Flex and Microsoft Silverlight obsolete? For at least the next five years, the answer is a definite “no”; inconsistent implementations of the draft HTML 5 specification and immature tooling make building HTML 5 apps that work consistently across browsers and operating systems a real challenge. Furthermore, this “either/ or” scenario is driven only by vendor politics, not by developer realities. Ultimately, HTML 5 and RIA platforms will be complementary technologies, and enterprise development shops will need to invest in both approaches to deliver expressive applications that combine reach and richness.

Adoption OF RIA Platforms is on The Rise; will HTML 5 halt it?
Over the past two years, Forrester clients have adopted rich Internet application (RIA) platforms because they demonstrate clear benefits, including improved customer satisfaction, higher Web conversion rates, and reduced application maintenance costs. Then along came HTML 5, which promises to provide all of the benefits of RIA platforms but in an open, standard way supported by any browser. No plug-in downloads required! The question: Should developers turn away from RIA platforms now and embrace HTML 5?1
In short: No, and here’s why.

The Early Winners Are ASP.NET Ajax, Plug-Ins, And Open Source Ajax
Forrester’s latest Enterprise And SMB Software Survey, North America And Europe, Q4 2009, shows that the number of development decision-makers whose companies use RIA platforms to deliver applications is up significantly, from 26% in 2008 to 34% in 2009 (see Figure 1). At the same time, the overall number of inquiries Forrester receives regarding RIA platforms is down by 15%. What’s going on here? It’s simple: As clients have transitioned from early adopters to aggressive exploiters of RIA technology, we no longer get questions about the viability of RIA platforms per se. Inquiries now tend to focus on the relative strengths and weaknesses of individual platforms.

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